INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW REPORT

Darfur's New Security Reality

Nairobi/Brussels, 26 November 2007: With the Darfur crisis evolving – and deteriorating – rapidly, the international community must urgently revise its approach to a political settlement.

Darfur’s New Security Reality,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the need to reformulate the peace process, with negotiations that are more inclusive and address the conflict’s root causes. While there are fewer deaths now than in 2003-2004, the parties have splintered, confrontations have multiplied, and violence is again rising. Access for humanitarian agencies is decreasing, international peacekeeping is not yet effective, and a political settlement is still far away. The peace talks launched in Libya in October 2007 are on hold. To succeed, the process must include the full range of constituencies involved in the crisis, such as women and Arab tribes.  

“Incorporating broader and more representative voices can help remedy the uneven weight the peace process now gives the ruling National Congress Party (NPC) and rebel factions”, says David Mozersky, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director.

The Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA), signed in May 2006 by the Government of Sudan and a few rebel factions is a failure and has partly contributed to deteriorating security in the region. The NPC in Khartoum is pursuing destructive policies meant to ensure its survival in the 2009 elections. The rebel signatories – particularly Minni Minawi’s faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA/MM) – have not disarmed and have been responsible for attacks on civilians, humanitarians, the African Union peacekeepers and camps for internally displaced persons (IDP). Inter-Arab dissension has increased, and there is now a high risk of an Arab insurgency. A spill-over of the conflict into the Kordofan and Abyei oil fields has also started.

The international community should take advantage of the delay in the Libya talks to reformulate the negotiation process and broaden participation. A number of the core issues that drive the conflict, such as land tenure and use and the role of local government and administrative structures, were not included in the DPA but need to be part of the new talks.

The hybrid UN/AU peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) is unlikely to be fully operational until well into 2008, so promised aid must be sent quickly to the AU mission (AMIS). Once it is on the ground, UNAMID must be more pro-active in protecting civilians and responding to ceasefire violations. The international community must support it better than it has AMIS, including with tougher political responses to further non-compliance by any party.

“To date, little has been done to hold the NCP accountable”, says Daniela Kroslak, Crisis Group’s Africa Research Director. “Failure to respond appropriately would leave the international community an unwitting accomplice to the beginnings of Sudan’s next war”.

To find out more, visit our “Crisis in Darfur” page, which has links to Crisis Group’s reports and opinion pieces on the conflict, details of our advocacy efforts to date, links to other resources, and information on what you can do to support Crisis Group’s efforts. 

The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering some 60 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.